West Africa Braces for 10% Cocoa Output Decline
The global cocoa market is on high alert following reports of a looming 10% decline in cocoa output from West Africa in the 2025/26 season. This forecast, shared by industry insiders and first reported by Reuters, has intensified concerns over global supply shortages and rising chocolate prices.
Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon—the four largest cocoa-producing countries in Africa—collectively account for roughly 70% of the global cocoa supply. These nations are now facing a perfect storm of production setbacks driven by climate volatility, ageing cocoa trees, and the resurgence of devastating plant diseases.
A Region in Crisis
Ivory Coast and Ghana, in particular, have been hit hard by erratic weather patterns, including heavy rainfall and prolonged dry spells that disrupt the flowering and fruiting cycles of cocoa plants. Experts warn that the impacts of climate change are becoming more acute with each passing season, diminishing yields and threatening the viability of smallholder farms.
“The upcoming season is already shaping up to be weaker than the last,” said an anonymous exporter quoted by Reuters. “Farms are suffering. The trees are old, the inputs are expensive, and the weather is no longer predictable.”
In Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, production is expected to fall from 650,000 metric tonnes in the current 2024/25 season to approximately 585,000 tonnes in 2025/26. Meanwhile, Ivory Coast, the top producer, could see a drop from an estimated 1.8 million tonnes to about 1.62 million tonnes.
Root Causes: Climate, Age, and Disease
Three major factors are driving the downturn:
- Climate change: Unpredictable weather events—such as prolonged droughts, excessive rains, and rising temperatures—have disrupted cocoa’s growing cycle. Pests and fungal diseases also thrive in unstable climates, compounding the problem.
- Ageing trees: Many West African cocoa plantations are decades old and far past their peak productivity. Replanting programmes have struggled to keep pace due to limited access to financing and resistant planting materials.
- Crop diseases: Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV), in particular, continues to plague Ghana and parts of Nigeria. The virus weakens trees, reduces pod production, and ultimately kills plants if left untreated.
Economic Fallout and Global Repercussions
For cocoa farmers, the decline in yields spells economic hardship. Most smallholders rely on cocoa as their main source of income. With prices soaring but volumes shrinking, the paradox of higher market value offers little comfort to those with fewer beans to sell.
Global markets are already responding. Cocoa prices on international futures exchanges hit historic highs earlier this year, breaching the $10,000-per-tonne mark for the first time in decades. While some correction followed, sustained supply constraints are likely to keep prices elevated throughout 2025 and into 2026.
Chocolate manufacturers are being forced to rethink sourcing strategies, product sizes, and even recipes. Shrinkflation—reducing bar sizes while maintaining prices—is becoming increasingly common, while some companies are substituting or reducing cocoa content in certain products to manage costs.
Calls for Urgent Action
Industry stakeholders and agricultural ministries are calling for urgent investments in replanting, disease-resistant tree varieties, and climate adaptation measures. The World Cocoa Foundation and regional governments have already launched several initiatives aimed at boosting resilience, but progress has been slow and uneven.
“There’s no short-term fix,” noted a regional agronomist working with farmers in Ghana. “It takes at least three to five years for new cocoa trees to mature. If we don’t act now, future yields could be even worse.”
Efforts are also underway to improve access to fertilisers, pesticides, and training on modern farming techniques. However, challenges such as limited infrastructure, financing gaps, and political instability in parts of the region continue to hamper progress.
The Road Ahead
With West Africa’s cocoa output under serious threat, the global cocoa industry is entering a period of uncertainty. Beyond the economic ripple effects, the situation shines a spotlight on the vulnerability of a sector that depends heavily on smallholder farmers in regions increasingly exposed to environmental stress.
As the 2025/26 season approaches, all eyes will be on West Africa’s weather patterns, government interventions, and industry responses. For now, what’s clear is that the cocoa supply chain—from the farm to your favourite chocolate bar—is facing a new era of fragility that could reshape the industry for years to come.