Cocoa Crisis 2025
Chocolate lovers across the globe are feeling the heat—not just from climate change, but from their wallets. The global cocoa market is undergoing a historic shock, with prices reaching an all-time high of $12,000 per metric ton in late 2024. As of mid-2025, prices have stabilized slightly but still hover around $10,000, marking a staggering 300% increase compared to the start of 2024.
This unprecedented price surge is more than a supply and demand hiccup—it’s a full-blown cocoa crisis caused by a perfect storm of biological, environmental, and systemic issues.
A Crop in Crisis: Disease and Declining Yields
At the heart of the crisis is the devastating spread of cocoa swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD), a plant virus that has ravaged cocoa farms in West Africa, particularly Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together produce nearly two-thirds of the world’s cocoa.
CSSVD not only reduces yields but also kills cocoa trees outright, forcing farmers to abandon plantations or replant trees that take years to mature. Ghana has declared the disease a national agricultural emergency, with tens of thousands of hectares already lost. The lack of effective mitigation tools, combined with aging trees and monoculture farming practices, has left producers especially vulnerable.
Climate Change Fuels Instability
The cocoa crop is extremely sensitive to environmental conditions. Higher temperatures, erratic rainfall, and prolonged dry seasons—largely driven by climate change—are compounding the impact of disease. Regions once ideal for cocoa cultivation are becoming less hospitable, while suitable new regions are limited and often underdeveloped.
Even when rainfall returns, it’s often too late to rescue damaged crops. Flooding and drought cycles are shortening harvest windows, disrupting flowering, and driving down productivity per hectare.
Farming Practices and Supply Chain Fragility
Beyond natural factors, unsustainable farming practices have amplified the crisis. Years of overreliance on a small number of producing countries, poor access to credit, and minimal technological support have left cocoa farmers with few tools to adapt to these shocks.
Smallholder farmers, who produce the majority of the world’s cocoa, often lack the resources to transition to climate-smart agriculture. Without targeted investment, training, or incentives, crop diversity and resilience remain low.
This has profound consequences for the global supply chain. In Europe, where 96.5% of cocoa imports come from vulnerable countries like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, the European Union is now grappling with what some analysts are calling a “chocolate crisis.” Confectioners face shrinking supply, higher input costs, and pressure to maintain ethically sourced, deforestation-free cocoa under new EU regulations.
Economic Fallout: Who Pays the Price?
The cocoa crisis is not just hurting farmers and producers—it’s also being felt by consumers and manufacturers. Premium chocolate brands are raising prices, scaling back product lines, and reducing portion sizes. Mass-market brands may be forced to reformulate recipes, substituting cocoa content or relying more heavily on alternatives like white chocolate or carob.
In developing economies, where chocolate is still a luxury product, rising costs could suppress demand altogether. Meanwhile, multinational chocolate companies are under increasing pressure from shareholders to hedge against future volatility.
What Comes Next?
Industry insiders warn that there’s no quick fix. Long-term solutions may involve investing in disease-resistant cocoa varieties, expanding production in new regions like Latin America or Southeast Asia, and scaling up sustainability programs that reward farmers for regenerative agriculture.
Technological innovation, including satellite monitoring and blockchain-based traceability, may offer improved supply chain transparency. But without systemic reforms and climate adaptation funding, the risk of recurring cocoa crises remains high.
The Cocoa Crisis: Prices at Historic Highs is more than a market correction—it’s a wake-up call for the global chocolate industry. With demand projected to rise and supply increasingly uncertain, the path forward will require collaboration among governments, corporations, NGOs, and consumers alike.
For now, the bitter truth is clear: our favorite treat may be more expensive and less available for the foreseeable future.